Epilogue to the Hunt for Red October

The end is more bitter than sweet, but I was relieved to see the worst case scenario (a Cardinals-Yankees World Series) averted.  While hardly anybody could deny that the Reds should have been in the picture longer – at least ousting the Giants in the NLDS to reach the NLCS, if not eventually playing the Tigers for the World Championship – I guess I’m marginally comforted by the fact that the Giants won the whole thing.  More comforting yet was the fact that they came back on the Cardinals, too.

Maybe next year will be better…

As I’ve alluded, there were promising developments this past season: the emergence of Todd Frazier, the hints that Homer Bailey is finally nearing his potential, the ability of the team to not just weather (but excel despite) Joey Votto’s injury.

MY PREDICTIONS (Put Abruptly to Rest):

World Series:  Rangers 4, Reds 2

 Totally off. But at least I picked playoff teams, right?

MVPs: Curtis Granderson and Andrew McCutchen

Taking half-credit for the McCutchen pick because of the third place finish in NL MVP voting and the fact that he was the apparent MVP for a good part of the year.

Cy Youngs: Justin Verlander and Tim Lincecum

Obviously full credit where it's due with the safe pick of Verlander, make that 1.5 for the Philomath.

Wait, what?  David Price?  Oh, right.  Justin Verlander finished a close second.  Rather, make that a clean 1-for-6 after I grant myself half-credit on Verlander too.  Official scorer doesn't rule in my favor, though, so make it 1-for-6 in my head and 0-for-6 for those scoring by the rules of the game at home.

Betting anyone I match or best that line next season.

The Hunt for Red October: A Tragedy

I don't want to say a lot, but I thought maybe there'd be some catharsis in processing a little of what happened in the NLDS last week.  My fellow Reds fans and I are picking up the pieces, and since I made the mistake of really believing in their chances (especially after bringing a 2-0 lead back from San Francisco) it's a pretty sour taste in my mouth.  Anyway, as you'll see, I have at least one more horse in the race.  Maybe I'll follow up on that later and see how I end up, but just a snapshot of my predictions so far show me why I never put money on anything.

MY PREDICTIONS (Revisited):

World Series:  Rangers 4, Reds 2

So my World Series prediction was... wrong.  I did at least pick playoff teams, and even going into Game 5 of the NLDS I made myself believe in the Reds.  Guess I learned my lesson.  Back to negativity, and anything good that ever happens to the Reds in my lifetime will just be a pleasant surprise.  The Rangers finished their collapse a week earlier, and their uncertainty with free-agent Josh Hamilton suggests their door is less open than Cincinnati's.  Maybe I'll have better guesses next year, and maybe I'll even pick the Reds again once my disappointment subsides.  Todd Frazier emerged as Scott Rolen's heir-apparent at third base, sadly emphasizing Rolen's underachievements in the playoffs.  Frazier filled in at first during Votto's injury, though, and the team managed to look good without their star.  He was also responsible for my best memory at GABP this season: with the Reds hosting the Braves in Chipper Jones' last series in Cincinnati, Frazier walked up to the plate to a Sinatra tune and lined a walk-off homer.  The place was electric.

MVPs: Curtis Granderson and Andrew McCutchen

I'm not going to fact-check myself, but I don't think there are any MVPs with averages as low as .232, which was Granderson's line this year.  In the MVP discussion last year, he added 3 more homers (43 vs. 40) at the expense of 30 points off his average (.262 last year).  Not a great bargain.  McCutcheon was actually in the hunt for the batting title and led the NL in hits.  I felt pretty good about this guess but it looks like McCutchen and Posey were trending in opposite directions at season's end.

Cy Youngs: Justin Verlander and Tim Lincecum

With Lincecum pitching out of the bullpen against my Reds and coming of a season leading the NL in losses and runs allowed, I didn't make the safe prediction I thought I did.  Verlander, though, may redeem me.  He looks virtually unhittable in the playoffs, and he's riding momentum that started in the final weeks of the season.   

Review by Haiku: Philomath Culture Edition for March/April 2012

Television

Mad Men

Zou bisou bisou.

I see they brought creepy back.

By that I mean Glen.

Game of Thrones

I grade papers through

this show each week but I've seen

many strange bosoms.

Dragnet 1967

Jack Webb was the man,

Los Angeles - the city.

That's where he came in.

Movies

The Men

Speaking of Jack Webb,

he was wheelchair bound and young

in Brando's first flick.

Whisper of the Heart

Whoa, slow your rolls kids,

got a bit ahead of things.

You're in middle school.

Columbo

Oh, just one more thing:

Even young Peter Falk looks

like old Peter Falk.

Tower Heist

Alan Alda as

a jerky rich criminal.

Like I believe that...

Death Race 2000

I don't understand

the cult appeal and yet I

totally get it.

Hoop Dreams

Don't make the mistake

of looking up how things went

after, like I did.

Transylvania 6-5000 

I love Ed Begley

Jr. but this movie is

really quite lousy.

Baseball

Reds climbing back up

standings but Ticketmaster

won't let me go watch.

Prologue to The Hunt for Red October?

It's with a sigh of relief that I confirm that baseball season is, indeed, here again.  I'm in the lab working, which means I have to watch for the numbers to change in the box scores online rather than watch the Reds shut down the Marlins in person or on tv/radio.  Even though I'm working, Opening Day is still a holiday on my calendar.  So I'll use 15 minutes to look ahead at the 2012 season.  It should be pretty entertaining in 6 months to see how wildly inaccurate my predictions are.  Sean Marshall just closed out the 9th in 11 pitches, getting the season off on a winning foot.  Even though the hype about the Reds in the NL Central seemed to temper by the end of Spring Training, the additions of guys like Marshall, Mat Latos, and Ryan Ludwick have me feeling optimistic.  I'll feel all the better if Scott Rolen plays even 2/3 of the season.  And, at any rate, I'm hoping to match or exceed last year's (5) number of visits to Great American Ball Park.


MY PREDICTIONS

World Series:  Rangers 4, Reds 2

The Rangers lost CJ Wilson, but he was hardly the sole reason they're the 2x-reigning AL Champs.  If it's not Texas I image it will be Detroit over the... what?!?... Cincinnati Reds in the World Series?!?  Yeah, I don't know.  I feel like believing this year.  I saw an SI prediction last winter that actually justified predicting the Reds as WS Champions because they could follow the sneaky formula that St. Louis used to become surprise winners last year.  I'll echo that logic, I guess, for lack of motivation in generating my own.  If I don't have a little confidence this year, I may never get the chance.  In 2013 Rolen will be a year older and Brandon Phillips may have moved on.

MVPs: Curtis Granderson and Andrew McCutchen

Granderson was in the conversation for AL MVP last year, and deservedly so.  Yet I guess these picks have more of a wish list feel than any true educated guesses, because I value the guy's brains (really, what proportion of major leaguers have finished college and been any good?) and he's easily my favorite player on the perennial-winning Yankees (though that particular point doesn't say very much).  As for McCutchen, there's a long shot.  He's an All-Star outfielder on a team that will probably keep improving (even without AJ Burnett for awhile, if he was really going to make a huge difference anyway).  He seems like a professional to me, he's super talented, and I'd mostly like to say I saw an MVP play here in Indianapolis (he was with the Triple-A Indians before being called up).

Cy Youngs: Justin Verlander and Tim Lincecum

Going with the safe picks for the CY Awards.  Both have won before, and both are awesome.  Made that easy.

Guess we'll see how everything goes...