Epilogue to the Hunt for Red October

The end is more bitter than sweet, but I was relieved to see the worst case scenario (a Cardinals-Yankees World Series) averted.  While hardly anybody could deny that the Reds should have been in the picture longer – at least ousting the Giants in the NLDS to reach the NLCS, if not eventually playing the Tigers for the World Championship – I guess I’m marginally comforted by the fact that the Giants won the whole thing.  More comforting yet was the fact that they came back on the Cardinals, too.

Maybe next year will be better…

As I’ve alluded, there were promising developments this past season: the emergence of Todd Frazier, the hints that Homer Bailey is finally nearing his potential, the ability of the team to not just weather (but excel despite) Joey Votto’s injury.

MY PREDICTIONS (Put Abruptly to Rest):

World Series:  Rangers 4, Reds 2

 Totally off. But at least I picked playoff teams, right?

MVPs: Curtis Granderson and Andrew McCutchen

Taking half-credit for the McCutchen pick because of the third place finish in NL MVP voting and the fact that he was the apparent MVP for a good part of the year.

Cy Youngs: Justin Verlander and Tim Lincecum

Obviously full credit where it's due with the safe pick of Verlander, make that 1.5 for the Philomath.

Wait, what?  David Price?  Oh, right.  Justin Verlander finished a close second.  Rather, make that a clean 1-for-6 after I grant myself half-credit on Verlander too.  Official scorer doesn't rule in my favor, though, so make it 1-for-6 in my head and 0-for-6 for those scoring by the rules of the game at home.

Betting anyone I match or best that line next season.

Processing the Fear of Violence

I'm writing off-the-cuff a bit tonight because I can't sleep.  Regardless of whatever time this post will claim to publish we just cleared 5am in Indianapolis.  I should be asleep, or at the very least working to prepare lectures and grade for my classes.

But tonight, Indianapolis had its 99th murder* of calendar year 2012.  My heart isn't beating the same, my lungs are respiring shallow rations of air, and my imagination is kicking around like a ping-pong ball between dichotomous thoughts: peace and violence, peace and violence.

Recently, I've grown extra aware of homicides in the local news.  I don't think that the rate is up, necessarily, and maybe it's the change of season that has my mind latching on to the depressing aspects of life.  It's overly simple to blame cooler weather, lack of greenery, and shorter days for our problems, but these factors are very real contributors to a dreary disposition like the one I have.

Even so, the first 98 murders did a lot less to keep me up at night.  Tonight, though, the crime was reported at a store I've patronized.  It was committed even closer to home, along a major street I use and/or cross almost daily.  The nearness of the shooting has opened my eyes and my imagination, after they were cracked by an armed robbery (thankfully no shooting) in the same area about a week ago.  When I say the same area, though, I don't really mean just any old area.  I mean my area.  My wife's area, and therefore my family's area.  We make our home - our first - in this area.  When I clicked on the Google map showing the immediate neighborhood around the crime scene, I found us.  And it's not like we were on the edge of the map.

I'm not allowing myself to be afraid to admit that I'm afraid. 

I'm afraid of guns.  I don't know what they can do, or how they really even work, but I know they can kill me or anyone else.  Over 3/4 of the victims on the 2012 homicide list* died by firearm.

I'm afraid of the dark.  But I'm so afraid of the light and the attention that it may draw that I sit in the dark while I type.

I'm afraid to talk about it.  Yet I'm afraid to sit quietly and pretend nothing is wrong.

I'm afraid of misunderstandings.  I'm usually quiet to avoid misunderstandings, even though silence can be as confusing as poorly-chosen words.  The following isn't as carefully deliberated as you might expect from me, but this is already a rare post in that it isn't driven by cerebral or witty notions:

I don't expect a potential murderer to read a blog that nobody else reads, but these sentiments are meant for everyone or no one, as it may be.  They're even for me a little bit, to remind myself of how humbled and mortal I feel tonight.

Speaking from the side of fear, intimidation is an effective tool.  It's one I feel we should leave in the shed, though, and guns and murder are tools that shouldn't even be at our disposal.  Why are people content to be the next cycle in history, the next wave of violence, and the next statistic in the crime blotter?  Bigger and better movements, interactions, and headlines are so clearly in reach with the right mix of common sense and common decency.  People are flawed, but I think it's pathetic to accept such dearths of security, kindness, compassion, and peace as human nature.  We are so much more alike than we are different.

We are all virtual clones of one another, yet we play up differences which are dictated by a fraction of a percent of our genome.  Beyond nature, even our environments are not without key similarities.  With few exceptions, we are all struggling in numerous ways.  Not least of all financially.  Yet some very knowingly add to myriad suffering when they respond to their stressors with violence.  The person perpetrating whatever wrongs they endure is suffering too.  Is there no way to see this, appreciate common bonds and shared experiences, and have a meaningful dialogue?  How can it be that the answer to the problems is digging ourselves, each other, and our communities further into the pit of despair and disorder?

As I write this and seek catharsis which may not be attainable in such haste, I'm not sure what/where to conclude my plea.  I'm left with so many more questions than answers, and I hate to think of how I would take the news if such a crime hit this close to home in any sense other than the geographical.  The truth is I'm very lucky but others around me are not, and luck can run out on anybody at anytime even though we live in a world in which we shouldn't need so much luck anymore.

We are the human species, and if we are the top of the top like we think we are we should be able to change our environment to promote security and common goals.  We have to stop using the fact that we're "human" as an excuse for doing all the stupid and hurtful things we feel inclined to do, and start using the fact that we're "human" as a standard for responsibility, ingenuity, and compassion that too few of us demonstrate.  We are all capable of these qualities and of peace, we should strive to attain them, and honestly we really must in order to pass a life worth living in this country and this world onto the next generation after enjoying it for ourselves.

The fear brings me to a few conclusive thoughts for the night:

I am at times gripped with a fear that becomes increasingly rational, validated, and intense.  My life (and its quality) is one among all in this world that depends upon the good sense, kindness, and simple control of violent impulses from everyone around me.  I'm grateful, despite many struggles, to have an objectively good life.  Despite frequently lacking the ability or initiative to do more and do good with my life, I'm thankful to those who allow me and help me to live it at the standard it meets.  I ask all the powers that be - including those around me - for continued patience and opportunity as I seek to better reach my potential to do good for myself and for those around me.  I ask for the same patience and opportunity for everyone.  Please begin or continue to set aside aggression, greed, hate, ignorance, envy, pride, and all the other counterproductive distractions to human decency so that we can all set aside at least some of our heartache and fear.

*My source appears to be politically biased, but it has a great deal of key data in a simple presentation.

It's Not a Race! Or Is It?

I recently gave a biology exam to twelve students, and I was alarmed at the pace they set in completing it.  Actually, my students surprised me in multiple ways, and here I’ll share the experience and a vague recap of the results to show you what I mean.

This was the second exam of the semester, and a few students who were particularly fast on the first exam again finished the earliest.  In fact, by simple observation of the extreme cases the relative speed at which students worked was fairly similar.  The fastest workers were the same, the slowest workers were the same in either case.

On the other hand, the absolute speed at which students worked was startling.  Based on the extremes again, the fastest students were done in just 10 minutes while the last student still finished in under 40 minutes.  I had students working for up to 80 minutes on the first exam, so the pace of the class overall was startling.  Though my observations are driven by the extreme cases for clarity, the students in-between submitted their exams at a relatively steady pace (fairly balanced, overall).

I was curious to know if I had written an anomalously easy exam, and I even asked a student who finished surprisingly early, “Too easy?”  The response seemed to suggest that the exam had been just that.  This was early on (less than 20 minutes), and I kept the exams sorted in order of completion to see if there would be any difference between those who spent less than a minute with each question and those who took more time to think.

To my increasing surprise, though, exam after exam was submitted in fairly rapid succession.  There was a detectably confident air in the room as folks packed up to leave.  And none of my students spent more than a minute per question, on average (there were 50 questions total). Thus, Figure 1 includes the averages for 12 students who virtually all worked at a noticeably quicker pace than they had previously.  Recall that the first few students finished in about 10 minutes, the last few students finished in about 40 minutes. 

My initial instinct to separate the earliest from the latest finishers changed with added perspective.  Instead, as I look at Figure 1 I am more tempted to compare these results to those from the first exam.  The main thing I notice is that the average was actually lower on the second exam (66.5) than on the first exam (70).  This comes despite the speed and seeming confidence with which students approached the second exam.

Of course, how do you really interpret such a result?  Perhaps the additional 3.5 points on average would not be worth the same as the time saved for an average student.  In a case like this, it may be that speed doesn’t kill.  Instead, speed is just speed.

I know the dynamics of my surprise – first at the speed, then at the confidence, then at the results – which are so-called because I can’t discern any real correlation.  In fact, Figure 1 depicts scores on exams submitted within a half-hour window and shows no clear relationship between exam score and order (time, by proxy) of completion. What I would have expected, going in, would be an upside-down bell curve spanning a larger window of time (at least an hour between first and last submissions).  My prediction at 20 minutes into the exam would have been much the same, only with a narrowed range between the high and low scores (the confidence was not exclusive to star students).

I’m not left with much to conclude, though my main goal was less to diagnose anything and more to share my striking observations.  There may be some classroom psychology phenomenon at work - I'd be interested to know if that's the case.  All I really know is that it was an interesting and quick day in class, and a lot of things (obviously) grabbed my attention.  My guess is that any or all of the following factors were at play, in no particular order of importance:

                - Confidence as test-takers

                                - Especially among those who have already performed at a high level

                                - Cushion from previous performances allows for a few small mistakes

                - Overconfidence as test-takers

                                - Especially among those who have less experience/success in the sciences

                                - Recognizing/choosing related but incorrect answers without careful reading

                - Freedom to go home after the exam and impatience at doing so

                                - Consideration of weather, which was inclement and worsening

                                - Weariness at this later stage in the semester

                                - Less incentive to hurry on first exam, as a lecture was scheduled to follow

                - Perceived pressure to rush at seeing others complete the exam so quickly

                                - Perceived correlation between exam success and speed of completion

                - My wording/selection of questions

                                - Subjects more numerous/difficult than first exam

                                - Questions themselves perhaps less specific/difficult than first exam